We visited Dr. Emori Seita, who actually performed the calculations for the global warming simulation featured here on Earthrium, and works on the frontline of global warming research at the National Institute for Environmental Studies.
How are you able to forecast
what will happen in 100 years?
Imagine tossing a ball in the air. If you know at what speed you threw that ball, you can calculate and thus predict how many seconds it will take to fall, because the ball obeys the laws of physics. Basically, it's the same as that. But instead of a ball, we apply the laws of physics to a mass of air.If we take the Earth today as a starting point for our calculations, we can work out what the Earth will be like a little in the future. Then if we use that Earth a little in the future as the next starting point, we can predict the state of the Earth a little further ahead again. By repeating this process, we can predict the future. Obviously we can't predict what the weather will be like on a given day in 100 years time, but we can predict for example how different the average temperature in Tokyo will be in 2080 - 2090 to what it is today.
The calculations show that in terms of what the planet will be like in 2100, we can expect temperatures on land to rise more than those at sea. Temperatures will rise more at higher latitudes. Temperature rise will be greater in winter than summer. Temperatures will rise less in the seas around the South Pole and in the northern North Atlantic. Many places in the tropics of the Pacific and in higher latitudes will experience higher rainfall, while in subtropical regions, many will have less rain. Almost every simulation agrees on these points, and they can be logically explained, so I think we can be confident this is what will happen.
Future research plans
We are thinking of modeling the planet's systems as a whole, not just the physical mechanisms of climate, but including impact on ecosystems, and chemical reactions in the atmosphere, to do things like predict changes in vegetation, and calculate how the ice of Greenland will melt. This model of the Earth's systems is largely complete, and in 2007 we hope to commence real calculations.
We also plan to perform calculations for about 20 to 30 years from now with greater precision than these latest global warming projections. By doing so we hope to be able to offer probabilities, for example, "there is an XX percent chance of a typhoon of this intensity coming in 30 years time. " By finding out exactly how the climate will change, as a society we can devise realistic ways of dealing with those changes, for example by building dykes, or planting different crop varieties, all of which increase the need for more reliable projections.
What can we do to stop global warming?
There are things we as individuals can do, that governments can do, and that businesses can do, but the things each of us can do are by no means insignificant.Even turning off lights or adjusting the temperature of our air conditioning for example can have a huge impact if a lot of people make a point of doing them.
Forecasts obtained by simulation are invariably somewhat unreliable. I suspect some will find it odd to be told despite this lack of certainty that the whole country must pull together with a common purpose. It would be odder still if people didn't feel this way, but regardless, the situation is now such that unless we do all work together, we'll be unable to make the necessary reductions in carbon dioxide levels. Therefore we should be listening to the views of different people and examining the facts ourselves to ascertain what is reliable about the predictions and what isn't to ensure we have a proper understanding of the issues, and act accordingly.
Just what kind of planet is Planet Earth?
One scientist's view
Put simply I'd say it is a planet in the process of transformation.
We tend to think of the Earth as literally solid as a rock, and virtually unalterable, but this is not the case. Human industrial activity is definitely changing the Earth, albeit gradually. It's a creeping sort of change, which makes it doubly unsettling. Even if we were to stop emitting CO2 right now, the power of inertia means that temperatures would keep rising for another century or so. Some have said temperatures on the ocean surface would continue to rise for a thousand years. Ideally everyone should understand more clearly that this is the kind of change confronting us.
